The correlation between oil and stocks move

Bernanke: why oil and stocks move together

23.02.2016

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Former President of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, has laid out his views on why the correlation between oil and stocks has increased of late. For much of the start of the year it appeared that declining crude benchmarks were weighing on global stocks, and more recently a recovery in oil has seen shares move off their lows.

Bernanke explains his opinion on this relationship by stating:

“Much of this positive correlation can be explained by the tendency of stocks and oil prices to react in the same direction to common factors, including changes in aggregate demand and in overall uncertainty and risk aversion. However, even accounting for these factors, the residual correlation is close to zero, not negative as we would expect if it were capturing only beneficial supply shocks.”

Petrodollar

“There are several other explanations that could be investigated: for example, the possibility that declines in oil prices, even if initially caused by higher supply,affect global financial conditions by damaging the creditworthiness of oil-producing companies or countries.

Any person acting on this information does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it.

上文补充了2月13日看到一篇文章后的的思考

找到一个石油价格影响市场的机理——石油美元。老师说低价石油说明着经济不好需求疲软,故而市场悲观。但还有供给方的责任,美国页岩气,中东石油大国的恶性竞争,还有刚刚加入的伊朗都是油价降低的主要原因。昨天OPEC可能减产的消息让石油价格飙升进而提振欧美市场。廉价的能源应该促进经济,但当前的结果是负面的,资本逃离加重需求问题,不利于石油价格的上涨,债务问题也随之变得更加严重。

 

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