GThoughts: Perception Matters

It’s winter. It’s depressing cold and wet winter. For avoiding depression like last year, all my running gears have been upgraded to water-resistant level, to embrace the coldness and storm.

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No excuse, no matter how cold or stormy it is. To be honest, I begin to love the rainy winter. I expect the rain every time I am about to go to the gym or go for a run. I don’t know, maybe it reminds me of the Spring in 2012, or maybe I feel stronger and tougher than those people who hates it or fears it.

When people complaining that it’s raining and cold outside! To me, the rain can be a catalyst, heating up my muscles to run faster. Then I am thinking: We live in different worlds.

The world is like a mirror, our mood and perspective are reflected in the mirror, what we see or feel is not the world itself but what we think. Just like how people react differently to the rain. Therefore, how you perceive  is more important than the facts.

Like the US presidential election that just settled, president-elect Trump was a very controversial candidate. People who pro him would fight for him, people who hate him would fuck him even though he is not attractive at all…joke

In my opinion, he is a smart and bold man, his policies are truly for the good of America. The market changes the view very sharply right after confirming that he will become the next president. Why? Didn’t all the media and big figures say he is the bad news for the US economy?

People were talking bad things about him, that his isolation policies would harm US companies in global trades. Whereas in just one night, people start talking about his tax cut policies and looser regulation in banks would be very beneficial. How can the market change the topic quite sudden? With the same fact, which is Trump becomes the president, the market can drop 8%, but also can pick up the loss and rise another 2%.

The impression of Trump changed, and how he is behaving is also changed. The Dow has already created the new high, while S&P 500 is approaching the new record as well. Stock markets are celebrating, presume another bull market is just around the corner.

However this is not a conclusion, he is not the president yet, what he will do, to what extend, still remain uncertain. The positive views today are built on something temporary, just like all the beautiful thoughts about a girl before she becomes your girlfriend.

As I mentioned, the fact is not important, perception matters. The banks, military industries, and constructions are the obvious winner under the Trump. Banks’ benefited owing to higher interest rate and looser regulations. I see no problem of that if the whole economy is prospering as well. However, a higher interest rate would make the US debt problem worse, which means the government will find it harder to pay off the debts+ interests. On the other hand, the government needs to raise more money funding the increasing spending in the constructions, don’t forget Trump’s government is also cutting a huge amount of income- TAX. Therefore, I am doubting if the government have enough budget for the new constructions or even it will not even be fully realised.

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We all know the Trump’s policies, which have the big impacts on the world. But how? That’s the question. UNCERTAINTY does not exist in his policies but in people’s mind.

Eyeing Yellen’s speech at 15:00 GMT on Thursday.

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