About Meteorit

A journey of pleading forgiveness.

TI 6月初展望整理

今年四月May宣布将选举提前到6月初,伦敦金融城重燃翻盘的希望,英镑大涨。

然后四月底法国第一轮大选结果公布,担忧欧洲不稳定分裂的情绪缓一口气,欧元也走出阴霾。直到马克龙正式当选,欧元已经涨回到去年Brexit前的区间了。

从Brexit投票结果公布到现在差不多一年,一个起伏,现在仿佛又回到了原点。但是英国的故事在6月8日选举结果出来之前都还没结束。但目前来看是乐观的,因为法国人已经给愚蠢的英国人指明了出路,民粹主义的脱欧谎言在法国一一揭穿,均体现在了选票上。相信英国人是务实的,既然没有搅乱欧洲,闹剧也就可以演的不那么过了,还是好好的和欧洲人谈判不要闹得那么僵。

还有一件事值得一提,几天前Trump来北约又不忘骂德国车企really bad。就是美国与德国,想想这两年美国干DB, VW,又是在英国人背后推着搞Brexit 乱欧洲政局。未来德国对美国的出口应该会受到影响,川普在骂之前应该已经开始行动或者打算行动了,这样骂一下可以让自己理直气壮的去做,而且美国修理‘盟友’就没有只说到但做不到的。这意味着,欧元升回去才符合川普增加出口,减少来自德国欧洲的贸易逆差的愿望。当然也包括日本,日元的升值。还记得川普前几个月也骂过日本的车企,今年日元就是弱不下来去年底trump trade的势头不再,USDJPY距离高点118越来越远,regardless all the fundenmantal。

5月份欧元英镑的抬头,将美元压了下去,即使FED升息缩表利多不断,再加上各种杂音包括川普通俄门对FED鸽派解读美元指数来到了今年低点97。否极泰来,涨是肯定会涨,短期的涨幅行情我想要来了。因为还有两周就是FOMC的利率决策,上周4的数据出来,美元开始扭转。英镑欧元/USD的上升形态都被破坏,以英镑最严重,USDJPY也在关键上升阻力位110.87未破。同时美股坐在云上感觉良好,大家都看空美股(很久很久了),但离梦幻破灭总好像一直有一段距离(但这次这个距离我会放在很短期,只在我做多美元的这段时间),which means risk on mode still on, gold down, JPY down。但是GOLD还在上升趋势未破,近期比特币不断刷新高,感觉离破灭也不远了吧,好像有人在准备了。

美元能不能在升息前顺利上升要看这周五的NON FARM PAYROLL. 但上周四拿到的价格风险低,应该耐心等待。同样的套路,两周后FED无论加息与否都应该提前抛美元。毕竟要求弱势美元是川普的主旋律。

至于英镑,现在已经捡回差不多10%,未来还会涨(Presume May没有当选),这样假设是从技术面看得,还未到涨幅满足区域选举前也不可能涨上去时间不够,再加上前文的主观分析胡说八道。上周做空英镑只是看到破位,顺势而为,理解为上升趋势中间的一个调整波。等回撤到大概1.2696(目标区,应该会在选举前跌到这个位置)的时候就可以做多英镑了,6月的第一周肯定震荡。如果真如想象的那样MAY下去,工党回来,英镑涨满足后马上再涨一波是很值得期待的。

总结:

6月上旬,做多美元。等待机会,拿到可以接受的止损进入英镑多头位(In case May stay)。

美股不说啥了,就等

以上全是胡说八道

正是诸法空相,不生不灭,不增不减

整理整理整理

运动类

  1. gym,run 一层
  2. swim 挂在袋中
  3. Cycling kits 放在单车停放区域

早餐补充

  1. 干净的水壶放在书柜底层
  2. 蛋白粉和早餐粉也放在最下层
  3. 早上喝完后及时清洗好归位

衣服类

  1. 前一天将第二天要穿的衣服挂在门后
  2. 不穿的衣服挂好在衣橱
  3. 脏衣服丢入

文件

  1. 国内重要证件放在透明文件夹
  2. 驾照 翻译件放在紫色文件夹
  3. 护照 BRP 在读证明 银行账单放在大的透明文件夹中
  4. 以上全放在电脑包中

 

成之日记

13 Feb.

6:30爬起来,在床上赖了半小时,还是感到疲倦。起床后去游泳馆的路上感到好冷,游了700m,25分钟

早早来到学校,发现了一直想尝试一番的bloomberg terminal.

明天开始要调整作息,提早1小时,5点起床,7点来学校搜集资讯,做research and trading plan。

违例抽了2根烟,同学那来的,感到困乏,今天的学习不够有效率。

这周开始要再增加一个习惯,重新尝试一周一本书,睡前2小时看,晚饭要少食

比海更深

这篇日志真不知道该如何开头,因为想的太多了,还是随便写写吧。

回来后真正陪爸妈也就10天,终于在要走的前一晚和爸爸久违的对峙了一次(不知道用什么词形容,也不算吵架,氛围不好),感觉每次离开家前都会这样来一次。现在回想,矛盾基本来自于他的要求或者方法与我的想法不一致,换种说法是他强加的关爱方式让人难以接受的时候。

一大早爸妈一起送我去机场,我知道他还有很多要讲和嘱咐的话,但一路我们什么都没说。。匆匆的拜拜我就奔向登机口,爸留在车上,其实我也有些话想对他们说,也想好好拥抱他们。这次回家相隔上次隔了18个月,不长也不短,时间的痕迹仍持续的显现在他们脸上。

这次回来家里多了两只猫,有些出乎意料,他们是不喜欢养宠物的,一说脏,二说养是要担责任的怕麻烦,说过见不得猫啊狗的,还一度下禁令不许我养这些。可我见到的是他们对这一对母子猫非常爱护,有时还对他们说话,讲道理,像对待小孩一样。猫从来都是一脸不屑爱理不理,只有饿了才会缠着你叫两声,吃饱了就跑出去玩。我说猫又听不懂,你跟他说这么多,爸却告诉我这猫有灵性,一开始母猫很瘦小,经常在家院子前逗留,不经意的一次喂食猫就守着不走了。勉强收留后诞下小崽子,猫会在车库守着妈回来,出门时猫也会送一段。现在还学会了如何把扫地机器人关掉。。

虽然我一直说这都是人对猫的一厢情愿,猫不像狗那么忠实,猫的眼里没有人类。不过这猫的出现的确让家里的感觉大大不同。

其实从小到达,就没喜欢呆在爸妈身边过,越长大越不想。可是越大又越是感到对他们的亏欠无法偿清。这才是世上最不对等的关系。比如这些心里话我没法让他们看到,我只能微信他们,希望他们和和气气,高高兴兴,身体健康。

就说到这,在飞机上看了部电影,叫<比海更深>,这种电影也许只有在漫长无聊的飞机上才有心看得下来。摘录几句我很喜欢的台词

It’s not that easy growing up to be the man you want to be.

不知道真相会不会好过些。不会,好坏都是我生命的一部分

真不明白男人不能爱在当下,不是不断追赶已逝去的,就是奢求无法实现的梦想,这样岂能快快乐乐的过每一天,幸福这东西,是要舍得放下什么才能获得的。

飞机刚刚落地,Good evening London.

Notes: 3 Lessons I Got From A Proprietary Trading Firm Founder & Trader

Article from

http://www.newtraderu.com/2016/12/29/lessons-proprietary-trading-firm/

For years, I have been passionate about trading. It is a discipline that is generally unknown by a lot of people and seen as mysterious by many. Nevertheless, I gave it a try three years ago and I don’t regret it.

Despite most people’s opinion, I decided to pursue my development in the trading field to hopefully reach the level of trading full-time.

Being unsuccessful at first, I set out to surround myself with people who saw success in the trading industry. After all, if other people became full-time traders, why wouldn’t I be able to do it? There was no reason.

Through my own podcast, I’ve been able to interview some of the greatest figures of the trading industry and learn from them. I have been marked and impressed by several of those interviews that highlighted some crucial success factors for traders.

On one of his very busy day, I sat down with Mike Bellafiore, a stock trader and the founder of SMB Capital, a proprietary trading firm located in New York, to discuss following my reading of his two popular trading books.

Mike has formed several successful technical traders himself and knows what it takes, both in terms of personality and learning experience, to thrive in the trading industry.

Through this article, I wanted to highlight the top three lessons I got from my interview with Mike Bellafiore. The purpose of those lessons could be to make you a full-time trader, but you’ll notice that the traits making a trader successful can be applied to several other areas of life, including business, school, and more.

Lesson 1: You Need To Adopt A Growth Mindset

At the start of the interview, Mike mentioned his favorite quote: “You can be better tomorrow than you are today.”

As simple as this quote can be, it is one of the keys to a trader’s success because it forces the person to adopt a way of thinking focused on growth.

That principle is described in the book Mindset: The New Psychology of Success. The author, Carol S. Dweck, Ph.D., explores the importance of mindset in a person’s success. According to her research, Dweck identifies two types of mindsets: a “growth mindset” and a “fixed mindset”.

She writes: “Believing that your qualities are carved in stone — the fixed mindset — creates an urgency to prove yourself over and over.” That is a sure way to remain with the same strengths and weaknesses.

On the other hands, individuals with a “growth mindset” believe that their qualities can be developed through application and experiences.

This “growth mindset” is what Mike Bellafiore believes to be the reason for most traders’ success. Being willing to accept not being perfect and grow over time is what allows most traders to improve and achieve a higher level.

Now, what about the next time you’ll think you can’t be a good public speaker or that you can’t make it through a certain school program? That’s a great example of fixed mindset and it is to avoid, Dweck would say.

Lesson 2: The Success Of Traders Lies In Having A Technical Edge And A Plan Executed Consistently

It is given that successful traders do not do things randomly. Their actions are crafted in advance according to a plan. Those traders need to pick trades that, more often than not, will work for them and, most importantly, remain consistent in the application of their plans.

Being right is not what is important. However, it is crucial for traders to have an edge. That means traders know that doing the same thing over and over again will lead to a higher probability of making money. It is a game of probability (because you cannot be certain of anything).

As a matter of fact, the difference between those who make it in trading and those who fail lies in how consistent they are in their application. That was the opinion of Michel Villa, a trading coach based in Montreal who has worked for multiple financial institutions (2015).

When I asked Michel what was the most important characteristic of the successful stocks traders he encountered, he answered: “It’s consistency”.

Lesson 3: Selected Habits Lead To Improvement

While a lot of struggling traders act randomly and move forward accordingly, the successful ones have habits in place to make the improvement process easier.

Those habits are very simple things that, once repeated over time, lead to major improvements. The goal is to pick best practices (i.e. journaling, trade reviews, testing, research, etc.) into periodic activities.

Bellafiore recommends figuring out the end results by asking yourself: “Who do I want to be in a year?”

A simple answer could be: a consistent trader making 10% return per month, or even, a student getting an A grade in a specific class.

Then, the idea is to figure out what you can do daily to reach that goal. For instance, you could review your plan 20 minutes a day or deliberately study a book on the topic (while taking notes).

This leads to consistent improvement, unlike a few random actions here and there that only add clutter to your trading.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Mike Bellafiore taught me a lot on the type of mindset I needed to show up with daily. In addition, I’m now understand the benefits that come with following a precise plan to achieve my goals (something I used to hate).

Lastly, I’ve defined a series of habits that helped me progress in several areas of life, whether that’s learning Modern Chinese or increasing my trading return.

Let me remind you that, although these lessons come from a trader, they can be applied to anything in life. What are you going to implement from this article?

CarWash

If you inherited £100 how would you ensure you received a reasonable return over a one year period?

[Car washing service]

It really depends on how much time or opportunity cost you would like to put to receive a good return.

100 pounds obviously is not enough to bet on any financial markets.

If you put aside the opportunity cost of time spent, with only 100 pounds,

  1. I would just go to the Poundland, buying cleaning tools for about 20 pounds.
  2. Print washing advertisement A4 posters for 20 pounds.
  3. Go to the Car parking, put the ad on the windows of dirty and good cars.

Wait for the phone call with 60 pounds and trying to survive before receiving the first phone call.

My advantage is cheap, quick and visiting service, each service will just cost them 5 pounds.

After 50 times’ hard work, I can upgrade my gears and go to London (I am currently based in Brighton), and provide better service. Of course, there are more cars in London and I am going to charge 10pounds per service.

Quick and visiting service is still my advantages.

If it works, I am going to go further and recruiting people to work with me. I will contact the clients and distribute the works. Every transaction will go through PayPal which is easier to manage. 70% of the revenue goes to the employee.

If it goes well, I will make an App called CarWash, which just works like Deliveroo, but my App delivers the car washing service. Costumers order services online, providing the location and parking time of the day. Our registered employee who is close to the location will go there and wash…

According to Transport of London, there are 2.56 million cars in London. Let’s give a conservative estimate that every car wash once per month. An estimate of 1000 transactions per month for a startup company is about right. A gross profit of £3000 per month, which is considerable for a poor little guy starting from just £100.

Of course, it will be continuing to expand under the huge potential demands of the market.